The Marine Recreational Information Program, or MRIP, is the new way NOAA Fisheries is collecting, analyzing and reporting recreational fishing data. The program brings scientists and stakeholders together to evaluate the way we’ve done things in the past and constantly work toward ever more reliable and trusted data. In January of 2011, the MRIP team finalized an ambitious overhaul of the way NOAA calculates recreational catch: We have corrected assumptions about how different factors might affect catch rates, and developed a new method to produce more accurate estimates. This method is being used to recalculate previous estimates dating back to 2004, and will be the basis for all new estimates moving forward. In the coming months, pre-2004 estimates will also be recalculated.
In implementing this fundamental change, we have built the scientific and statistical foundation necessary to make other significant improvements – like enhanced angler surveys, more precise estimates, and more frequent reporting – to meet the needs of fishermen, stock assessors, managers, and others. We’ve also acted on a major recommendation by the National Research Council – the nation’s premier independent evaluator of scientific practices – from its review of the Marine Recreational Fishing Statistical Survey (MRFSS). Congress called upon NOAA to address this and other NRC findings in the 2007 Magnuson-Stevens Reauthorization Act.
WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE OLD AND NEW NUMBERS?
There are no across-the-board trends either in size or direction of change in the MRIP estimates. On a species-by-species basis, some estimates go up, some go down, and some remain about the same. (Visit http://www.countmyfish.noaa.gov for estimation and comparison tools). However, in all cases, the numbers are more accurate. That’s because we are now taking into consideration things like possible differences in catch rates at high-activity and low-activity fishing sites, or the amount of fishing occurring at different parts of the day. In statistics, variables like these are called potential biases, and can skew the actual numbers if they’re not fully accounted for.
WHAT’S THE IMPACT ON THE ESTIMATES?
Each estimate is made up of two parts: The point estimate and the percent standard error (PSE). The point estimate is the estimated number of fish caught at a given place over a specified period of time. MRIP point estimates will generally be different than those previously reported. However, because we removed numerous sources of potential bias from each estimate, and those sources can each have a different effect, there are no general trends to those changes. It’s similar to when a teacher decides to score a test on a “curve”; any given final score may, or may not, be affected, depending on what all the other scores are. Case studies are included on pages 2 and 3.
The PSE is similar to the “margin of error” that is frequently used in public opinion surveys. It is the measure of how precise an estimate is. The lower the PSE, the greater the precision. The MRIP PSEs are higher than those calculated previously. But according to our analysis, that’s primarily because the old PSEs were incorrect. Accurately calculating PSEs is important because a full understanding of what we don’t know – and how we can better fill gaps in our knowledge – is an essential component in making prudent, sustainable fisheries management decisions.
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